Election Distrust is Not Just a Republican Thing

Distrust in elections has been more recently a defining feature of modern conservative politics. But that’s not the case anymore. 

Since President Donald Trump and his allies falsely claimed that Joe Biden did not win the 2020 presidential election, conspiracy theories about voter fraud have moved from the political fringe into the mainstream that has reshaped how millions of Americans view the country's elections.

Election distrust has largely been portrayed as a conservative phenomenon. But a recent LOOKOUT survey of 127 people found that Democrats and Independents also harbor deep skepticism about American elections — just not for the same reasons.

While many election deniers on the right point to repeatedly debunked claims of widespread voter fraud, ballot "mules," and illegal voting, Democrats and Independents who took our survey were more likely to cite government actions they believe threaten free and fair elections. 

Respondents pointed to voter suppression efforts, gerrymandering, the influence of money in politics, Supreme Court decisions that weaken voting protections, and concerns that federal officials could interfere with election administration or intimidate voters as reasons to think election results could be altered or skewed for the foreseeable future.

Trusting the process, not the politics

This finding isn't unique to our survey: Polling from UC San Diego found trust in accurate vote counting ahead of the 2026 midterm elections fell 17 percentage points between 2025 and 2026, with similar declines among Democrats, Republicans and Independents. 

That's roughly the same level of confidence that the Center for Election Innovation & Research found among Republicans after the 2020 election, when President Donald Trump began claiming widespread voter fraud and sought to overturn his loss through allies in states including Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia. 

Our survey found a similar trend: less than 30% of Democrats and Independents told us they have full trust in the election process as it exists today. 

But while that top-line number may match conservative election skeptics, as with most things in politics, neither side can agree on why they distrust the results. 

For most Democrats and Independents who took LOOKOUT's survey, distrust isn't centered on whether ballots are accurately cast or counted, as it has been for Republicans. Instead, it's rooted in the politics surrounding elections — the rules, institutions and people shaping them before and after votes are cast. 

These respondents cited several recent legal and political developments they believe have weakened the country's democratic safeguards: such as the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in Louisiana v. Callais, which narrowed the circumstances of how racially drawn voting districts can be used as a reason to sue under the Voting Rights Act; as well as ongoing battles over election administration in the Southwest and concerns that political actors are increasingly willing to undermine public confidence in election outcomes for partisan gain.

They also brought up the possibility of political interference and voter intimidation at polling stations by ICE agents or members of the National Guard: though their presence is illegal under federal law, the Trump administration has refused to rule out the possibility of sending agents anyway.

In other words: Democratic and Independent respondents largely trust election workers to abide by the process — they just don’t view the process as fair. 

For those people who have full trust in the election process, many reported either having worked at polling stations or knowing people who do: “It’s really hard to cry conspiracy when it’s Carol from your neighborhood handling ballots, (though) I am slightly skeptical about how well some volunteers pick up election training,” said a Democrat survey respondent from Arizona who plans to work the polls in the upcoming November election. 

Overall, more than 75% of respondents did not have complete faith in the upcoming midterm elections, a finding that cut across the political spectrum.

Among Democrats, nearly 40% of respondents said they were either unsure or neutral about the reliability of upcoming midterm elections or mostly untrusting of them — suggesting that, in this survey, Democrat respondents expressed less trust in election results than Independents.

“The right has co-opted the topic of election security, so I feel like if I come out strongly and say ‘don’t trust the results,’ I’m playing into a larger playbook,” said one Democratic survey respondent from New York City. “But the Trump admin is deeply unpopular among Independents and Democrats, so if the election doesn’t reflect that, it’s going to be curious. On a blunter note: I am worried.”

Arizona as a case study

According to the Voting Rights Lab, Arizona is among five states — alongside Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia and Texas — considered a ‘high-risk target for election manipulation’ in 2026. Several prominent candidates representing Arizona have a history of election denialism, and there are gaps in election administration laws that have caused problems in the past, such as weak laws regarding election certification.

Maricopa County, for example, has an election risk score of 100 in the wake of Recorder Justin Heap’s battles with the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors. His lawsuit against the predominantly GOP board for allegedly “illegally (taking) control of certain aspects of election administration” was settled in June, giving Heap, a prominent election denialist, more authority over early voting.

Several Maricopa Democrats and Independents who responded to LOOKOUT’s survey brought up Heap as a concern regarding the outcome of the county’s midterm elections — including those who expressed some level of trust in the process.

“The recorder having staff removing ballots and a scanner in a personal vehicle is an example of things that may cause distrust no matter how good our election systems and processes are,” said Tearanie Chinn, a Democrat registered in Phoenix. 

Another respondent, an Independent who wished only to be identified by her first name, Holland, told LOOKOUT that the battle between Heap and the board has made her watchful of what methods of voting seem most secure. She believes that dropping off her ballot will be the best way to ensure its integrity.

Despite worries about the conflict, Arizona Democrats said that they trust most local election officials and processes, and that they fear “outside influence” by the federal government in 2026 above all else.

Julie, a registered voter from Chandler, Arizona who wished to be identified only by her first name, wrote in the survey plainly: “What the current administration is doing on so many fronts threatens our democratic process of voting,” she said. “It is horrifying to see what they're doing and planning to do and trying to do.”